Crisis in Thai Aromatic Coconut Industry as Vietnamese Rivals Capture Chinese Market

The Thai aromatic coconut industry is facing a severe crisis, with local farmers struggling to cope with prices that have dropped to less than half their production costs, The Nation reported on October 23.  The dramatic price collapse is largely attributed to aggressive market capture by Vietnam, which now enjoys a competitive edge in shipping proximity and scale, while Thai quality remains inconsistent. 
Tattawin Saruno, an independent academic and expert in agricultural management, revealed the extent of the disaster.  As of October 21, 2025, the farm-gate price for aromatic coconuts in Songkhla province stood at a mere 2–3 baht per fruit. This is critically low, especially when farmers’ production costs average 4–5 baht per fruit. In some areas, buyers are refusing to purchase the coconuts, leaving crops to rot on the tree.
  With Thailand’s annual production standing at 500 million fruits, every 1 baht drop in price equates to a staggering 500-million-baht loss for the sector, threatening an industry with an annual export value in the tens of billions of baht.
The primary catalyst for the crisis is Vietnam’s successful entry into the massive Chinese market. While Thai small-scale farmers watched prices plummet, Vietnam secured a pivotal advantage in 2024 by signing the protocol with China.  This agreement formally permitted the export of fresh coconuts to the world’s largest consumer. Major Vietnamese shipments and exponential growth began in late 2024 and early 2025, coinciding directly with the collapse of Thai prices.